Three-State Formula: An Explanation of BJP's Strategy for Maharashtra CM
Following its dominant win in Maharashtra, BJP is deliberating on who should lead the state government. Possible approaches include appointing a surprise candidate, elevating a senior cabinet member, retaining Eknath Shinde as CM, or implementing a rotational power-sharing agreement. These strategies aim to maintain alliance stability while ensuring BJP’s stronghold in state politics. Devendra Fadnavis may take on a national role as part of this reshuffle.
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has begun the talks with both its allies, Shiv Sena's Eknath Shinde and Ajit Pawar's NCP, about the choice of Maharashtra's next Chief Minister after it completely dominated the 2024 state elections. With BJP winning 132 of the 149 seats contested, the party is in the best possible position for claiming the CM's chair. However, allies, too, are chasing after the top-post, and BJP reportedly is considering the following strategic formulas to finalize the CM while trying to balance coalition interests without letting the politics destabilize.
Key Formulas Under Consideration
The Rajasthan Formula
Just as BJP chose Bhajanlal Sharma - a first-time MLA - as Rajasthan CM, the party may choose a fresh, surprise face as Maharashtra's CM. This move is to introduce new leadership along with fewer factional rivalries in the coalition.
The Madhya Pradesh Formula
Drawing from its experience in MP, where Shivraj Singh Chouhan was replaced with a cabinet colleague, BJP could elevate a senior minister from the Fadnavis or Shinde cabinets. This formula leverages experienced leadership without unsettling the alliance's balance .
The Bihar Formula
The BJPs way forward may be modeled on the Bihar example of accepting Nitish Kumar of JD(U) as CM despite his party merely coming third. As Eknath Shinde had conducted the elections with the alliance, the BJP can stick to its pre-election stated intention and keep Shinde as CM.
Rotational Chief Ministership
The other is that of power sharing between BJP and Shiv Sena, when they would alternate leadership for 2.5 years each, thus ensuring that at any given time throughout the tenure of the coalition, each ally has a chance to head the government.
What Next?
BJP might also consider giving Devendra Fadnavis a national role, paving the way for fresh leadership in Maharashtra. Heated discussions are going on in Delhi involving the senior leaders including Amit Shah. Finally, the decision will reflect BJP's overall strategy in state as well as national politics.