Bitcoin Faces Possible Price Consolidation Despite Bullish Forecasts
Even with growing excitement throughout the crypto universe, Bitcoin may be entering a long-term consolidation, 10x Research Head of Research Markus Thielen says.
In a note dated April 14, Thielen noted that a number of short-term technical indicators — including the stochastic oscillator, which measures momentum — are flashing warning signs. He contends these patterns indicate Bitcoin is potentially creating a late-cycle top, as opposed to setting up for a breakout.
“We’re seeing a disconnect between short-term momentum and long-term trend indicators,” Thielen noted, warning that this divergence may signal a pause in the current rally.
Bitcoin: No Longer 'Long Only' ???
— 10x Research (@10x_Research) April 14, 2025
👇1-13) Year-to-date, Bitcoin ETF inflows stand at just +$225 million—and they could turn negative at any moment as the ongoing uncertainty surrounding Trump’s trade war continues to ripple through financial markets.
Bitcoin ETFs are on track… pic.twitter.com/zWx1SNqrx7
Bitcoin No Longer a Retail-Driven Frenzy
Thielen emphasized that Bitcoin’s character has shifted.
“This isn’t the same parabolic, retail-fueled market it once was,” he explained.
He thinks the price action at present is being influenced more by long-term holders and institutional investors — those who are choosing to accumulate and hold Bitcoin instead of actively trading it.
As of writing, Bitcoin is 32% higher year-to-date, trading at around $83,810, as per CoinMarketCap.
Thielen forecasts the cryptocurrency to stay wedged in a wide trading range of $73,000 to $94,000, reminiscent of the type of sideways trading witnessed across most of 2024 — though with a gentle upward bias.
Bitcoin most recently reached an all-time high of $109,000 in January 2025, after a breakout prompted by Donald Trump's November 2024 U.S. presidential victory.
Bitcoin is trading near the low end of its historical seasonal range. Nearly all of Bitcoin's annual performance occurs in 2 months: April and October. It is entirely possible Bitcoin could reach a new all-time high before June. pic.twitter.com/p8upTNAkKH
— Timothy Peterson (@nsquaredvalue) March 15, 2025
Analysts Divided on What Bitcoin Does Next
Whereas Thielen is cautious, a number of high-profile individuals are optimistic about Bitcoin's future in 2025.
Timothy Peterson and Jamie Coutts, Real Vision's Chief Crypto Analyst, predict new all-time highs in Q2 2025.
Andrew Kang, the founder of Mechanism Capital, has taken a bet on Bitcoin with a big swing, doubling down on a $200 million long position. His most recent leveraged trade has a high-risk, high-reward profile with possible gains or losses amounting to approximately $6.8 million.
In the meantime, Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan has stood pat on his $200,000 Bitcoin price forecast for 2025. He thinks global and economic events—especially Trump's suggested trade and tariff policies—may break the U.S. dollar and enhance Bitcoin's attractiveness as a decentralized alternative.
"In a less-dependent world on one reserve currency, assets such as Bitcoin and gold will become more and more paramount," Hougan argued.
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