Census Countdown: How India’s Population Puzzle Could Redefine Politics by 2029!
As the buzz around India's census gains momentum, discussions are intensifying regarding the potential political landscape changes following the census set to occur after January 2025. The upcoming census is expected to pave the way for significant transformations in India’s political representation by 2029. Here’s a closer look at how these changes could unfold.
What’s at Stake?
The Census, initially scheduled for 2020, faced delays due to the COVID-19 pandemic and political reasons. The central government is now poised to make an official announcement regarding the census, with states given a deadline until December 2024 to finalize their boundaries. This will raise several crucial questions about the timeline for the census, its impact on political dynamics, and whether caste will be included in the enumeration.
Will Caste Be Counted?
A major question surrounding the upcoming census is whether it will include a count of castes. Currently, the census collects basic information such as name and gender. Should the government decide to include caste, it would require amendments to existing census regulations. Opposition parties have been vocally advocating for a caste-based count, while the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has remained reticent on the issue, often citing the complexities involved. The definitive answer will only emerge upon the official announcement of the census.
How Will the Census Change India’s Political Scenario?
While the census is primarily aimed at refining government schemes, it is anticipated to influence India’s political framework significantly. Here are four notable changes that could arise from the census:
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Opening the Door for Reapportionment
Reapportionment involves redefining electoral boundaries to ensure equitable representation. The census report is essential for this process. As of now, a moratorium on reapportionment is in effect until 2026. However, with the census underway, it is likely to trigger a review of constituency boundaries, potentially changing the number of seats in both the Lok Sabha and state assemblies. -
Change in the Number of Seats
The last significant delimitation of Lok Sabha and state assembly seats occurred in 2008, primarily to adjust political equations. The last formal determination of the number of seats was based on the 1971 census. Since then, the population has tripled, increasing from about 500 million in 1970 to around 1.5 billion today. Notable political figures, including former President Pranab Mukherjee, have suggested an increase in Lok Sabha seats, potentially to 1,000. This adjustment could significantly alter representation. -
Implementation of the Women’s Reservation Bill
The Women’s Reservation Bill, which reserves 33% of seats for women in the Lok Sabha and state assemblies, has yet to be implemented due to the pending census and reapportionment. Once these processes are completed, the bill can be enacted, fundamentally changing the political landscape by increasing women’s participation at all levels of governance. -
Heightened Demands for Population Representation
The census results could amplify demands for fair representation based on population metrics. Historically, northern states have larger populations compared to their southern counterparts. If census data supports this, southern states may amplify their demands for a greater share of resources. Furthermore, there may be calls for representation based on caste, adding another layer to the political discourse.
Timeline for Census and Reapportionment
Both the census and subsequent reapportionment are expected to occur before the 2029 Lok Sabha elections. If the census receives the green light in 2025, it could take approximately two years to complete. Following that, reapportionment would likely require an additional year.
As India stands on the brink of this crucial demographic undertaking, the implications for its political future are profound, with the potential to reshape representation and address longstanding disparities.
