US Election 2024: What a Trump or Harris Presidency Means for India’s Future - Read Now

As the US Presidential election is heating up and Kamala Harris locked in a tight race with Donald Trump, India is closely watching how each candidate's victory could impact its future. The relationship the US maintains with India is critical to India's interests, ranging from trade and security to geopolitics. Here's what a Trump or Harris presidency could mean for India.

US-China Relations and the India Factor

One of the biggest challenges India faces is the cold war it has been conducting against China. Trump's first presidency had a firm stance against China and labelled it as a strategic threat. It is also under his tenure that his government helped form the Quad, which is a partnership between the Indo-Pacific nations acting as a counter to the influence of China. A Trump 2.0 victory would most likely have the best chances of continuing that adversarial approach, cementing India's position within the Quad and enhancing efforts to resist the ascendant tide of the People's

Republic of China in Eastern Asia.

On the other hand, Kamala Harris, who is nearly in line with the policy of President Joe Biden, is likely to be more balanced in her approach toward China. The Biden administration has focused on "de-risking" the relationship with China rather than a complete decoupling. Harris's presidency might see India maneuvering in a more subtle diplomatic space where cooperation with China in some areas can be seen to exist along with tensions in others.

Immigration Policies: A Hot-Button Issue

Immigration is another critical issue in the US election where Trump has 2.0 designed the campaign on illegal immigration crackdown. In case he gets elected again, there is a chance that Trump will get tougher immigration laws, thereby increasing Indians getting deported. Even though India is not a friendly country for illegal immigration, it will be an optics problem for the Indian government due to the reported deportation of Indians.

Harris has been a vocal opponent of illegal immigration, but may temper her stance. The Biden administration has already doubled down on efforts to curb illegal immigration by returning Indians across the border.

Tariffs and Trade

Donald Trump's administration was very much known for its "America First" policies, which also entailed imposing tariffs on countries like India. In a second term, he might well ask for higher tariffs on Indian goods, especially in areas such as semiconductors and motorcycles, straining trade relations.

While Harris has not outlined her tariff policies in detail, the Biden Administration has not relaxed its tariffs on strategic sectors; she is likely to tread on the same path. For India, it will be a challenge to exercise prudent diplomacy with both candidates concerning potential future trade difficulties.

Human Rights and Democracy

Trump has largely remained silent on India's internal issues, including the Jammu and Kashmir situation, which New Delhi has appreciated. Harris has been more vocal on democracy and human rights issues, as was evident during her discussions with Prime Minister Modi in 2021. A Harris presidency may increase scrutiny on India's human rights record, putting pressure on India to balance its foreign relations and internal policies.