The population of the world is set to decline for the first time ever in the next century. A new study in the Lancet reveals that there are about 7.8 billion people in the world currently.
This study also predicts that the peak in the global population would expectedly be around 9.7 billion in 2064; then it will decline to 8.79 billion in 2100.
And up to 23 countries could see this shrink in their populations, by more than 50 per cent. This includes Japan, Thailand, Italy, Spain, Portugal, South Korea, and other countries. The reasons vary from low birth rates to ageing populations.
It is worth noting here that even the most populous country China would also see a fall in its population. It will be from 1.4 billion in 2017 to 732 million in 2100.
While projecting this global trend of declining population, the study also forecasts some parts of the world that would see a rise in population numbers.
These will be North Africa, the Middle East, and Sub-Saharan Africa; it is set to triple over the course of the century from 1.03 billion in 2017 to 3.07 billion in 2100.
India, the second biggest populous country in the world, would also hover around 1·09 billion in 2100.
World Population Estimates
Lead study author and Professor of Global Health at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), Stein Emil Vollset said, “The last time that global population declined was in the mid 14th century, due to the Black Plague. If our forecast is correct, it will be the first time population decline is driven by fertility decline, as opposed to events such as a pandemic or famine.”
The world population estimate stands at 775.28 crores (2020).
This study points out well that Education among girls and increased access to contraception are likely reasons for the slowing down fertility and population growth.
The global total fertility rate is predicted to steadily decline; it will be from 2.37 in 2017 to 1.66 in 2100, well below the minimum rate (2.1 live births per woman). It is considered necessary to maintain population numbers.
Moreover, covid-19 linked deaths have been a major reason for increased fatality.
When it comes to absolute numbers, India reported 24.36 million cases of Covid-19 in 2021 up to December 6. This is 2.4 times the 10.29 million cases reported in 2020.
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