The World Meteorological Organization has warned that there is a greater likelihood than ever before that global temperatures will surpass a 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7F) threshold within the next five years.
However, it did not necessarily imply that the world would surpass the 1.5°C long-term warming limit above preindustrial levels outlined in the 2015 Paris Agreement.
According to Adam Scaife, the head of long-range prediction at Britain’s Met Office Hadley Centre and a contributor to the WMO’s recent Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update, there is a 66% probability of temporarily surpassing the 1.5°C threshold by 2027. This marks the first instance in history where it is more probable than not that we will exceed 1.5°C.
The previous year’s report indicated that the likelihood of reaching 1.5°C was approximately equal (50-50). A contributing factor to the increased probability of reaching this threshold is the anticipated development of an El Nino weather pattern in the upcoming months. This natural phenomenon involves warmer waters in the tropical Pacific, which in turn heat the atmosphere above, leading to a rise in global temperatures.
The El Nino “will combine with human-induced climate change to push global temperatures into uncharted territory”, said WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas in a press statement.
Nonetheless, the probability of temporarily surpassing the 1.5°C mark has grown over time. For instance, between 2017 and 2021, scientists projected a mere 10% likelihood of reaching 1.5°C.
In contrast to the climate projections of the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which rely on future greenhouse gas emissions, the WMO update offers more of a long-range weather forecast based on predictions.
The WMO’s findings also indicate a 98% probability that one of the next five years will break the record for being the hottest, surpassing 2016 when global temperatures rose by approximately 1.3°C (2.3°F).
