Update US 2024 Election: Trump Holds an Edge in Major Swing States – RCP Average Voting Points to Winning Outcome for Trump

The end time clock is ticking out in a few weeks of the American presidential election this year where Republican candidate Donald Trump managed to take an edge, according to an update conducted by RealClearPolitics using polling aggregation for 15 key swing states where there is a probability he gets 312 electoral votes for his win. For incumbent Vice President Kamala Harris, it looks as grim as 226 votes. In a similar electoral landscape that catapulted him to the White House in 2016, Trump looks set to secure the majority of electoral college votes again, though a national popular vote remains too close to call.

RCP data, based on aggregating several polls covering seven key swing states, shows that Trump has little more than a lead over each one: enough to roll into election night with an accumulation of 312 electoral college votes well into the necessary 270 above any threshold at which any candidate is declared to have already won. But experts pointed out that leads within this margin of error indicate that there is massive uncertainty involved in its preparation as the voters go through Election Day on November 5.

In an election where everything hangs in the balance across these swing states, another highly-respected polling aggregation site, FiveThirtyEight, has a much tighter race. This site has each of the two candidates matched up across all seven of the swing states, signifying how intense the battle is.

Trump's apparent lead could change, of course, since the aggregation of national data shows him ahead by a mere 0.1 percent of the popular vote. The closer look at the national level paints a fractured picture: RCP's swing-state data has Trump ahead by 1.5 percent in Arizona, 2.3 percent in Georgia, 0.1 percent in Michigan, 0.7 percent in Nevada, and by 0.8 percent in North Carolina, while Wisconsin shows a 0.3 percent lead for Trump. Such narrow leads keep the race volatile, as a last-minute swing in any of these states could alter the outcome dramatically.

The reason candidates have thrown vast resources into these swing states is that the presidency is awarded by a majority of the electoral college's 538 votes, rather than by a majority of the popular vote. The "winner-takes-all" rule applies in nearly every state, so even a slim majority delivers all of the state's electoral votes. Thus, Trump's current 219-to-215 lead in non-swing-state electoral votes underscores the importance of the swing states' 104 votes in determining the next president.

While RCP's aggregation favors Trump, several polls last week reflect the unpredictable nature of this year's contest. In national polls not included in RCP's calculations, an ABC poll released on Sunday showed Harris with a 2 percent lead, adding to the suspense as the race nears its conclusion.

Also Read: Explosion in Haryana Train: Passengers Jump in Panic, 4 Injured