The 2024 Haryana assembly election results are showcasing a surprising turn of events. The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) appears poised to secure a third consecutive term as it crossed the majority mark, leading on 48 seats according to the latest trends from the Election Commission. Meanwhile, the Congress party, which initially showed promise with early gains, is currently leading on 37 seats. Despite predictions from various exit polls that favored Congress, the situation has shifted as the counting progresses.

However, Congress MP Shashi Tharoor urges patience, suggesting that final results should not lead to hasty conclusions. Similarly, Congress leader Kumari Selja expressed confidence that the party would triumph in over 60 assembly seats. Former Chief Minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda echoed this optimism, maintaining that the party has strong ground support despite the current trends.

Internal Factionalism

One of the key challenges for the Congress party has been its internal factionalism. Multiple leaders within the party are vying for the Chief Minister's position, creating a scenario rife with ambition and competition. Randeep Surjewala, a senior Congress leader, mentioned that aspiring for the CM role isn't inherently wrong, yet it highlights a lack of unity. Bhupinder Singh Hooda has indicated that he’s not ready to retire from politics, while Kumari Selja has asserted her experience makes her a strong contender for the position. This discord might have diluted the party's overall strength during the elections.

Modi's Popularity Remains Intact

The election trends suggest that Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s influence in Haryana remains strong. The PM's vigorous campaigning included several rallies where he targeted the Congress on issues such as corruption, reservation policies, and dynastic politics. Modi also highlighted pro-farmer initiatives, which resonated with many voters. In contrast, Rahul Gandhi's rallies failed to shift public sentiment significantly, as issues of unemployment, inflation, and alleged favoritism towards select businessmen didn’t gain the traction the Congress party hoped for.

Non-Jat Votes Matter

The BJP’s strategy for the Haryana assembly elections has been significantly influenced by non-Jat votes. Traditionally, the Jat community has been a stronghold for the Congress; however, the division among Dalit voters and the consolidation of non-Jat support appear to have worked in favor of the BJP. This shift is crucial as the party navigates its way toward another victory, even as it tries to hold onto Jat support.

The Hooda Factor

Amid this political landscape, the dynamics within the Congress party are equally critical. The ongoing rivalry between factions loyal to Hooda and those opposing him has created tension. Despite this, the party's high command has mostly backed Hooda’s candidates, which might play a pivotal role in shaping the election results.

As the counting continues and results are finalized, it will be intriguing to see if Congress can regain its footing in Haryana or if the BJP will solidify its power. The outcome here could have ramifications not just for the state but also for upcoming elections in Maharashtra, Jharkhand, and Delhi.